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J.Health Sci., 52(5), 637-641, 2006
Quantitative Epidemiological Understanding of Influenza Propagation Process in Tokyo and Environs
Tsuyoshi Kobari,a
Mizuho Takahashi,b
Kazushige Ijuin,c
Hisako Takeuchi,d
Kazuo Iwaki,e
Fumiyoshi Ishii,f
Rieko Matsuda,g
Yuzuru Hayashi,*, g
and Takehiko Yajimah
aKosumo Chouzai Yakkyoku Co,. Ltd., 2-129-3 Miyahara, Kita, Saitama, Saitama 331-0812, Japan,
bNikko Citizen's Hospital, 1752-10 Arasawa, Kiyotaki, Nikko, Tochigi 321-1441, Japan,
cTanashi Yakuhin Co,. Ltd., 4-25-5, Tanashi, Nishi-Tokyo, Tokyo 188-0011, Japan,
dTriad Japan Co., Ltd., 2-18-10 Kitasato, Sagamihara, Kanagawa 228-0829, Japan,
eSchool of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Ohu University, 31-1 Misumido, Tomita-machi Koriyama, Fukushima 963-8611, Japan,
fDepartment of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Meiji Pharmaceutical University, Noshio 2-522-1, Kiyose, Tokyo 204-8588, Japan,
gNational Institute of Health Sciences, 1-18-1 Kami-Yoga, Setagaya, Tokyo 158-8501, Japan, and
hFaculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Toho University, Miyama 2-2-1, Funabashi, Chiba 274-8510, Japan
Here we show a quantitative, spatial interpretation of influenza propagation process in Tokyo and its environs in the season from November 1st, 2004 to October 31st, 2005. The time lags (day) of influenza propagation between distant sites are calculated by the cross-correlation functions of the daily variations in the amount of drug sale at community pharmacies. The influenza infection appears to have spread from the urban area of Tokyo to its suburbs in the season of 2004-05. From the time lags and distances of the pharmacy locations, the mean propagation speed is estimated to be 3.5 km/day.
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